No need to stay up late tomorrow night waiting for election results. Utilizing my superior knowledge of politics, I bring you this evening a rock-solid, 100 percent accurate prediction of what will happen in the races we care most about in tomorrow’s state election.
These predictions (or should I call them a guarantee of what will happen?), are not being made with my own personal bias. I’m not telling you here whom I want to win, or whom is most-deserving of victory.
I’m simply calling upon my undeniable, sometimes scary talents to tell you what will happen. No crystal balls, no time machines or flux capacitors. Just talent on loan from God. :)
So here goes …
State Representative in the 13th Essex District
(Danvers, West Peabody, and part of Middleton)
Ted Speliotis will win by at least 10 points
Republican Tom Lyons is a good guy, and the type of sincere new candidate that we like to see get involved in politics. But even though he’s worked hard during his campaign, long-time Democratic incumbent Ted Speliotis won’t break a sweat in winning re-election. Lyons will lose by a significant margin, even in West Peabody, his own home part of the district.
I live in the West Peabody, and electorally have done extremely well here in each of the two times I ran for citywide office. I know the people and the neighborhoods. I have lots of friends and family in Ward 6 particularly, yet no one I know is talking about Lyons or his campaign at this stage. It’s the hard, cold reality of being a first-time candidate, I guess.
But Speliotis is safe this time. Maybe we can convince a much stronger challenger to come out in two years by begging Ward 6 Councilor Barry Sinewitz to take on Speliotis in the next Democratic primary. Now that would be an interesting contest.
State Representative in the 12th Essex District
(Peabody Wards 1-4, Ward 5, precincts 1 and 3)
Beverley Griffin Dunne wins 13 of 14 precincts
I’ve written plenty about my thoughts on this race, so at this point, all I will say is that Dunne wins this one easily. Why? Because popularity counts most in Peabody elections, and Dunne has topped the ticket each time she’s run for school committee. In the special election for this seat 18 months ago, Dunne only lost because she split the vote with unenrolled candidate Dave Gravel.
The fact that Mayor Ted Bettencourt enthusiastically endorsed Dunne last week will help turn what was going to be a comfortable victory into a total landslide. The only place Cole will win, and by a narrow margin, is Ward 5, Precinct 3, one of the more conservative precincts in the city.
It also appears that, this time, Cole has been pretty much abandoned by the incompetent Mass. Republican Party, which has seemingly focused all of its limited resources on the governor’s race.
Congress in the MA 6th District
Seth Moulton by six points
After a couple of weeks of nasty ass campaign ads from both sides, it appears that Democrat Seth Moulton, who upset incumbent Congressman John Tierney in the primary has managed to hold off hard-charging Republican Richard Tisei.
I actually think that Tisei is going to win Peabody, but Moulton will run him over in Salem and Lynn, thanks to a superior ground game on Election Day in those cities.
The two will split Beverly and Gloucester, while Tisei wins the small towns in the district, which are Republican strongholds.
Governor of Massachusetts
Charlie Baker by five points
Martha Coakley has allowed Baker to take it to her in the final two months of this campaign, proving once again what a horrible candidate she is when running against a strong opponent. Call this Scott Brown Part II.
Baker has made himself a likeable Republican in Blue Massachusetts with his sappy TV ads and his weeping over the now infamous fisherman story during a recent debate. Half the voting populace is female, and Charlie showing what a sensitive male he is playing well on the distaff side.
Once again, the Commonwealth will have a state legislature dominated by Democrats, but a Republican in the corner office.
So there you go. Bet the kids’ college fund, if you want. But this is how it’s all going to come out tomorrow. Guaranteed.